This is a humour blog. I know my sense of humour isn’t what
t used to be, but I still try to keep it entertaining and amusing. I never do
serious. I never do politics. But today I am making an exception, for these are
exceptional times.
“What Happened?”
This is the question a lot of my American friends are
asking. It really isn’t a complicated answer, but it does require some
background, so I thought I’d post the reasons here so they could see how
something so monumental could come about. This decision will affect, not just
Britain, but Europe, America and the rest of the world, so it’s only fair to explain
how—and why—we did this to you.
What, really, is the
EU?
Here is an ironic fact that was floated around during the
lead up to the Referendum: The UK never voted to join the EU. It voted to join
the EEC—the European Economic Community—in 1973, and then voted to remain a
member, in 1975.
The EU is the self-perpetuating bureaucracy that has grown
up from the EEC. So the EU began with its base remit of overseeing free trade
and freedom of movement within the member nations, and gradually grew into a monolith
that passes laws on nearly all aspects of our lives. But this is not
necessarily a bad thing. Yes, we have laws handed to us by unelected, foreign bureaucrats
telling us how straight our cucumbers need to be, but the EU also has an
excellent record on human rights, woman’s’ rights, worker’s rights, the
environment, etc.
So, in exchange for the loss of some autonomy, we get to
travel, work and live pretty much anywhere in Europe. Going from the UK to live
and work in France is no more difficult than someone from New York moving to Pennsylvania.
The reverse is also true, and many people from many different European
countries now live and work here.
It’s not all good, but the benefits, for most of us,
out-weigh the disadvantages. For some, however, they do not. There is a group
of people who think Britain should be a totally sovereign nation. They
genuinely believe we can enjoy more benefits and better lives outside of the
EU. They formed UKIP, the UK Independence Party. Nigel Farage was their leader.
Why a Referendum?
The Referendum came about, not because UKIP finally forced
the issue, but due to in-fighting in the Conservative Party. Although it was
something the general population were becoming vocal about, there was no real need
to hold one at this time. But a power struggle (sorry, I don’t understand all
the nuances) forced David Cameron, the Prime Minister, to hastily agree to hold
a Referendum.
Consequently, his rival, Boris Johnson, championed the Leave
side. This was a political gamble. If Leave won, it would weaken Cameron’s
position and Boris could become Prime Minister.
What Remain Did Wrong
The EU: In order
to try to avoid a Referendum, Cameron went to the EU to try to agree some
compromises with them. The EU refused to budge, showing themselves to be the pusillanimous,
smug and self-serving bureaucrats that everyone feared them to be.
Cameron: The PM set
himself up as the face of the Remain Campaign. This made people who didn’t like
Cameron more likely to vote Leave. The Leave Campaign had no Front Man, so to
speak; Boris, Nigel and some other celebrities and politicians campaigned, but
there was no central character designed to rally around.
Parliament: In a
vote of National importance, more than a 50% win is generally required for the
change to take place. No one seems to have given this any notice.
The Remain Campaign
Itself: They lied. They lied meekly and self-consciously and their hyperbole
came back on them and made people distrust them more. The claims about
house-prices, consumer costs, WWIII were all fairly embarrassing.
What Leave Did Right
They lied. They lied eloquently, they lied with aplomb, they
lied loudly and often and long enough to fool enough people into believing
their lies.
- -
They said that the $350,000,000 a week going to
the EU could go to the NHS.
- -
They said they would halt immigration.
- -
They said that Turkey was going to join the EU
and that 1.5 million of them would swarm into the UK.
Immigrants and the NHS—two hot-buttons of the British public
and the Leave Campaign played them for all they were worth. In short, they told lies people wanted to believe.
The Vote
Despite this, as the country went to the polls, no one
anticipated the outcome. It was inconceivable, even to the Leave Campaign.
Nigel Farage basically conceded defeat at the start of the “all-night
vote-tally” show on BBC, saying he expected Remain to win by a slim margin, as
indeed did everyone else.
I stayed up to watch the show, expecting to go to bed about
2 AM when it became obvious that Remain was going to win. Instead, I remained watching,
along with the rest of the country, and the newscasters—our jaws getting closer
and closer to the floor—as district after district reported Leave wins. I’m
glad I did, otherwise I would not be able to believe it happened.
In my view, the Leave voters came in three groups: the True
Believers, those who honestly believe a better Britain will come out of this,
The “Don’t Like Foreigners” group, who were fooled into voting for something that
was not real (I have no data to back this up, but I suspect this was the
largest of my groups), and the “Didn’t Know What They We’re Doing” group, who
treated this election like a General Election and voted “Leave” just to spite
David Cameron or the Conservative Party or politicians in general and basically
had no idea what the EU was or what voting to leave it really meant.
|
I made this chart up, please do not think it is official or represents anything real |
The pundits and the pollsters all took into account the “Don’t
Like Foreigners” segment, but no one counted on the “Didn’t Know What They Were
Doing” group to be so large. That was where the surprise came in, and why Leave
won, and why this should have been a 65%/35% vote instead of 50/50. They should
have heeded the words of the American philosopher, George Carlin; “Never
underestimate the power of stupid people in large groups.”
As it was, of the 70 to 80% of the electorate who voted, 52%
came out for Leave, and 48% came out for Remain—a 4% margin representing around
1 million people. This is hardly a mandate for a change of this magnitude. My
feeling is, taking into account the people who didn’t vote and those who couldn’t
vote (children, those abroad, etc.) the 36% of the general population who voted
Leave are dragging a population largely in favour of staying in the EU, out of
the EU.
In short, this was a mistake. And I don’t mean an, “Oh, God,
we made a bad decision; that was a mistake!” type of mistake, I mean an, “Oh,
God, we made a bad decision by mistake!”
kind of mistake.
I truly believe, if they let us do the vote over again next
week, Remain would win by a wide margin.
What Happens Now
- There could be a recession that makes 2008 look like a walk
in the park.
- Scotland may opt to leave the UK.
- The EU itself may crumble.
All of this may happen. But then again, it may not.
My Take
Like much of the country, I am shocked. And still in the
grip of disbelief that a relatively tiny group of baffled voters can drag an
entire nation out of the EU against its will. It doesn’t seem right, it doesn’t
seem fair.
But we are where we are. And if it we are here by accident,
well, Britain has a rich tradition of having its history turn on lucky
accidents.
We need to get over our shock and start looking to the future.
There is a lot of optimism out there. The Leave politicians, as it became
obvious the Leave side was going to win, were positively bubbling with
enthusiasm at the opportunities that await us. Hopefully, they will take the
reins and guide us to that new and better Britain they have been promising for
the past ten years.
In truth, I don’t think a lot will change. There will be
some pain as the UK and the EU work out their separation agreement, as the EU
is determined to make us pay (they are going to beat us like a red-headed
step-child every chance they get), but this will only serve to show us that we
made the right choice. As one politician put it, “If you join a club, and then
try to leave that club and they knee-cap you, then maybe that is a club you shouldn’t
have joined in the first place. That’s not a club, that’s the mafia.”
If Remain had won, we would have maintained the status quo,
and sat around complaining about the EU and looking at the abyss called Leave,
thinking, “at least we’re not in there.” But now that we are in that abyss, we have
the opportunity to be totally self-ruling, and if our Leave politicians are
wise, and hold the good of the British people in their hearts, then things
could turn out well.
In a few years time, I think things will be pretty much the
same. The UK has a powerful economy and a vibrant financial sector. If there is,
indeed, a recession, we will recover. Immigration will continue, both into and
out of the UK. Trade will continue. Our financial sector will still deal with
the rest of the world. The difference will be that our laws will come from
Westminster instead of bureaucrats in Brussels.
What is happening now is the shock of something so
unexpected happening, but once that shock is over, people will begin to grasp
the advantages, and work for a better Britain.
I have hope. I’m ready to follow. We just need someone to
lead us.